Marseille vs Paris prediction

Marseille have won five, drawn none and lost four of their nine Ligue 1 games so far, scoring 20 and letting in 13. That has them 6th on 15 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Monaco away; before that came a 4-0 win at home to Strasbourg and a 3-1 win at home to Rennes.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won two of three recently (8 scored, 2 conceded).

So far in the Ligue 1, Paris have won five, drawn two and lost two of nine, with 16 goals scored and 10 conceded, good for 4th place and 17 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.7 goals for and 0.7 against. Last time out they beat Nice 3-0 at home; before that came a goalless draw away at Troyes and a 2-1 win at home to Paris Saint-Germain.

Paris are unbeaten in three. Three clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won none of two recently (1 scored, 2 conceded).

Home and away form points to Marseille: Marseille have won two of their last three at home, Paris none of their last two on the road. Two points separate the two sides in the table. Paris also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Marseille clear favourites at 56%, with Paris on 19% and the draw at 25%.

On goals, it expects around 3.4 in the game: 2.3 for Marseille and 1.1 for Paris. Over 2.5 goals is 64% and both teams scoring 59%. Their last meeting, on 31 Jan 2026, finished 2-2.