Ajax vs Excelsior prediction

Ajax have won seven, drawn three and lost one of their 11 Eredivisie games so far, scoring 30 and letting in 13. That has them 2nd on 24 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, one draw and one defeat, at 3.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Willem II 5-1 at home; before that came a 5-1 win away at For Sittard and a 3-1 defeat at home to PSV.

They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won one of three recently (8 scored, 6 conceded).

So far in the Eredivisie, Excelsior have won three, drawn two and lost six of 11, with 16 goals scored and 28 conceded, good for 15th place and 11 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Utrecht at home; before that came a 2-2 draw away at Nijmegen and a 3-0 win away at Willem II.

They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of three recently (9 scored, 2 conceded).

Home and away form points to Excelsior: Ajax have won one of their last three at home, Excelsior two of their last three on the road. 13 points separate the two sides in the table. Ajax also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Ajax clear favourites at 79%, with Excelsior on 7% and the draw at 14%.

On goals, it expects around 3.7 in the game: 2.7 for Ajax and 0.9 for Excelsior. Over 2.5 goals is 71% and both teams scoring 57%. Their last meeting, on 1 Feb 2026, finished 2-2.