Atalanta vs Parma prediction

Atalanta have won three, drawn two and lost four of their nine Serie A games so far, scoring 16 and letting in 17. That has them 13th on 11 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, two draws and two defeats, at 2.3 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 2-2 with Fiorentina; before that came a 4-4 draw at home to Frosinone and a 2-0 defeat away at Ajax.

Atalanta haven't won in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won two of three recently (10 scored, 6 conceded). F. Kessie (calf injury), G. Raspadori (thigh injury) and G. Scamacca (thigh injury), plus five others, are all unavailable.

So far in the Serie A, Parma have won one, drawn two and lost six of nine, with 5 goals scored and 15 conceded, good for 18th place and 5 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, one draw and four defeats, averaging 0.7 goals for and 1.8 against. Last time out they were held to a goalless draw by Udinese; before that came a 2-1 defeat away at Lazio and a 3-0 defeat at home to Torino.

Parma haven't won in four. They failed to score in three of those games. On the road they've won none of three recently (2 scored, 7 conceded). L. Valenti (coach's decision) and N. Elphege (illness) both miss out.

Home and away form points to Atalanta: Atalanta have won two of their last three at home, Parma none of their last three on the road. Six points separate the two sides in the table. Atalanta also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Atalanta clear favourites at 64%, with Parma on 15% and the draw at 21%.

On goals, it expects around 3.0 in the game: 2.2 for Atalanta and 0.9 for Parma. Over 2.5 goals is 58% and both teams scoring 51%. When they last met, on 25 Jan 2026, Atalanta won 4-0.