Benfica vs Alverca prediction

Benfica have won seven, drawn one and lost one of their nine Primeira Liga games so far, scoring 26 and letting in 8. That has them 2nd on 22 points.

Their last six in all competitions read five wins, no draws and one defeat, at 2.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Gil Vicente 4-1 at home; before that came a 2-1 win away at Santa Clara and a 4-1 win away at Omonia Nicosia.

Benfica are unbeaten in five. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. At home they've won three of three recently (10 scored, 2 conceded).

So far in the Primeira Liga, Alverca have won three, drawn two and lost four of nine, with 13 goals scored and 13 conceded, good for 10th place and 11 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, no draws and three defeats, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Arouca at home; before that came a 2-0 defeat away at Tondela and a 4-1 win away at Famalicao.

They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won two of three recently (7 scored, 4 conceded).

Home and away form points to Benfica: Benfica have won three of their last three at home, Alverca two of their last three on the road. 11 points separate the two sides in the table. Benfica also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Benfica clear favourites at 85%, with Alverca on 4% and the draw at 11%.

On goals, it expects around 4.0 in the game: 3.5 for Benfica and 0.6 for Alverca. Over 2.5 goals is 78% and both teams scoring 46%. When they last met, on 8 Feb 2026, Benfica won 2-1.