Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction

Newcastle United have won three, drawn two and lost four of their nine Premier League games so far, scoring 12 and letting in 15. That has them 13th on 11 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 4-1 to Coventry away; before that came a 2-1 win at home to Hull and a 4-1 defeat away at Leeds United.

They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won one of two recently (4 scored, 3 conceded). A. Elanga (knee injury), E. Jaouen (muscle injury) and J. Ramsey (thigh injury), plus one other, are all unavailable.

So far in the Premier League, Aston Villa have won three, drawn three and lost three of nine, with 10 goals scored and 13 conceded, good for 10th place and 12 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 3.0 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they beat Fenerbahce 6-0 at home; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Brentford and a 3-1 win away at Sevilla.

Aston Villa are unbeaten in five. They have scored in each of their last six. On the road they've won three of three recently (9 scored, 4 conceded). A. Onana (knee injury), G. Hemmings (knee injury) and I. Maatsen (ankle injury), plus two others, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Aston Villa: Newcastle United have won one of their last two at home, Aston Villa three of their last three on the road. One point separates the two sides in the table. Aston Villa also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Newcastle United favourites at 37%, with Aston Villa on 35% and the draw at 27%. In truth there's very little in it.

On goals, it expects around 2.9 in the game: 1.4 for Newcastle United and 1.5 for Aston Villa. Over 2.5 goals is 56% and both teams scoring 59%. When they last met, on 25 Jan 2026, Aston Villa won 2-0.