Braga vs Gent prediction

Braga have won one, drawn none and lost one of their two UEFA Europa Conference League games so far, scoring 2 and letting in 3. That has them 16th on 3 points.

Their last six in all competitions read one win, one draw and four defeats, at 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Gil Vicente at home; before that came a 3-0 defeat away at FC Copenhagen and a 3-1 defeat at home to Sp Lisbon.

Braga haven't won in four. Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 5 conceded).

So far in the UEFA Europa Conference League, Gent have won one, drawn none and lost one of two, with 1 goals scored and 2 conceded, good for 17th place and 3 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, two draws and no defeats, averaging 2.0 goals for and 0.8 against. Last time out they drew 3-3 with Rochefort; before that came a 1-0 win at home to Aarhus and a 2-0 win away at Waregem.

Gent are unbeaten in six. They have scored in each of their last six. Three clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of four recently (9 scored, 4 conceded).

Home and away form points to Gent: Braga have won one of their last three at home, Gent two of their last four on the road. The two sides are level on points. Gent also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Braga favourites at 47%, with Gent on 29% and the draw at 24%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Braga still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.4 for Braga and 1.4 for Gent. Over 2.5 goals is 47% and both teams scoring 47%.