Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction

Alverca have won three, drawn two and lost five of their ten Primeira Liga games so far, scoring 13 and letting in 14. That has them 10th on 11 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, no draws and three defeats, at 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Benfica away; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Arouca and a 2-0 defeat away at Tondela.

Alverca haven't won in three. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. They failed to score in three of those games. At home they've won one of two recently (1 scored, 1 conceded).

So far in the Primeira Liga, Casa Pia have won two, drawn one and lost seven of ten, with 5 goals scored and 19 conceded, good for 17th place and 7 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, no draws and three defeats, averaging 1.0 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Sp Lisbon at home; before that came a 2-0 win away at Estrela and a 1-0 win away at Alpendorada.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won three of three recently (5 scored, 1 conceded).

Home and away form points to Casa Pia: Alverca have won one of their last two at home, Casa Pia three of their last three on the road. Four points separate the two sides in the table. Alverca also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Alverca clear favourites at 55%, with Casa Pia on 20% and the draw at 25%.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.5 for Alverca and 1.1 for Casa Pia. Over 2.5 goals is 49% and both teams scoring 51%. When they last met, on 12 Apr 2026, Alverca won 3-1.