Toluca vs Monterrey prediction
Toluca
Sunday, 8 November 2026
01:00Liga MX
Monterrey
Who wins?
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Total goals
Both teams to score
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Team total goals
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Win to nil
Odd or even goals
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Toluca vs Monterrey: preview and prediction
Toluca welcome Monterrey to Estadio Nemesio Diez in Toluca on Sunday 8 November, with kick-off at 01:00. It's matchday 16 in the Liga MX. Toluca are 6th after 15 games, while Monterrey sit 9th having played 14. Last time out Toluca drew 2-2 at Club America, and Monterrey drew 3-3 at home with Club Tijuana.
We lean to Toluca (59%), but Monterrey could spring a surprise.
- Toluca have been falling short of what we expected from them lately.
Toluca: form and key numbers
Toluca have won six, drawn six and lost three of their 15 Liga MX games so far, scoring 31 and letting in 21. That has them 6th on 24 points.
Their last six in all competitions read no wins, four draws and two defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 2-2 with Club America; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Club Leon and a 2-2 draw at home to Club Tijuana.
Toluca are unbeaten in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won none of two recently (3 scored, 3 conceded).
- AClub America2-2D
- AClub Leon1-1D
- HClub Tijuana2-2D
- HAtl. San Luis1-1D
- ATigres UANL2-3L
- AMonterrey1-2L
Toluca: last 6 results in all competitions, newest first.
Monterrey: form and key numbers
So far in the Liga MX, Monterrey have won six, drawn three and lost five of 14, with 26 goals scored and 21 conceded, good for 9th place and 21 points.
Over the last six matches it has been three wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they drew 3-3 with Club Tijuana; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Guadalajara Chivas and a 4-1 win away at Puebla.
The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. On the road they've won one of two recently (5 scored, 2 conceded).
- HClub Tijuana3-3D
- HGuadalajara Chivas0-1L
- APuebla4-1W
- HPachuca2-1W
- AClub America1-1D
- HToluca2-1W
Monterrey: last 6 results in all competitions, newest first.
Toluca vs Monterrey: match analysis
Home and away form points to Monterrey: Toluca have won none of their last two at home, Monterrey one of their last two on the road. Three points separate the two sides in the table. Monterrey also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | +3 | 25 |
| 6 | Toluca | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 22 |
| 8 | Leon | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | +5 | 21 |
| 10 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
We make Toluca clear favourites at 59%, with Monterrey on 20% and the draw at 21%.
- 1.52.0
- 1.81.3
- 1.81.4
On goals, it expects around 3.1 in the game: 1.8 for Toluca and 1.4 for Monterrey. Over 2.5 goals is 62% and both teams scoring 60%. When they last met, on 3 Oct 2026, Monterrey won 2-1.
- Monterrey2-1Toluca
- Monterrey0-1Toluca
- Toluca3-2Monterrey
- Monterrey1-0Toluca
- Toluca6-2Monterrey
Their recent games have averaged 3.3 goals.
Every market at a glance
- ResultToluca win59%
- Double chanceToluca or draw80%
- GoalsOver 2.562%
- Both teams to scoreYes60%
- Clean sheetToluca26%
- CornersToluca 5.1 · Monterrey 5.010.1 expected
- Cards4.1 yellows expectedRed 63%
Frequently asked questions
Toluca vs Monterrey
Following Home win, Over 2.5 goals, Both teams to score · yes