Ilbirs vs Toktogul prediction

Ilbirs have won six, drawn 11 and lost 11 of their 28 Premier League games so far, scoring 30 and letting in 48. That has them 12th on 29 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 3-0 to Neftchi away; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Kara-Balta and a 6-0 defeat away at Alga.

Ilbirs haven't won in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank three times. At home they've won one of three recently (4 scored, 4 conceded).

So far in the Premier League, Toktogul have won nine, drawn four and lost 15 of 28, with 32 goals scored and 46 conceded, good for 11th place and 31 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.8 against. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Dordoi Bishkek at home; before that came a 3-0 defeat away at Bars and a 2-0 win at home to Abdish-Ata.

They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won none of two recently (0 scored, 5 conceded).

Home and away form points to Ilbirs: Ilbirs have won one of their last three at home, Toktogul none of their last two on the road. Two points separate the two sides in the table. Toktogul also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Ilbirs favourites at 43%, with Toktogul on 30% and the draw at 27%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.9 in the game: 1.5 for Ilbirs and 1.4 for Toktogul. Over 2.5 goals is 53% and both teams scoring 54%.