Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction

Sturm Graz have won one, drawn one and lost one of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 1 and letting in 3. That has them 19th on 4 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Grazer AK 6-1 at home; before that came a 3-0 defeat away at Bournemouth and a 2-0 win away at Austria Vienna.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank three times. At home they've won two of three recently (9 scored, 2 conceded). D. Khudyakov (inactive), E. Soglo (muscle injury) and F. Rozga (muscle injury), plus seven others, are all unavailable.

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Marseille have won none, drawn none and lost three of three, with 1 goals scored and 6 conceded, good for 34th place and 0 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, no draws and four defeats, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.7 against. Last time out they beat Angers 5-2 away; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Olympiakos and a 2-0 win away at Troyes.

They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won two of four recently (8 scored, 7 conceded). A. Koum Mbondo (inactive), D. Cornelius (hip injury) and F. Moumbagna (inactive), plus one other, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Sturm Graz: Sturm Graz have won two of their last three at home, Marseille two of their last four on the road. Four points separate the two sides in the table. Sturm Graz also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Marseille favourites at 50%, with Sturm Graz on 27% and the draw at 23%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.4 for Sturm Graz and 1.4 for Marseille. Over 2.5 goals is 53% and both teams scoring 54%.