Chesham United vs Real Bedford prediction

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, one draw and three defeats, averaging 2.5 goals for and 2.3 against. Last time out they lost 4-0 to Maidenhead at home; before that came a 7-2 win at home to Ware and a 4-1 win away at Horsham.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won one of four recently (10 scored, 10 conceded).

Their last five in all competitions read four wins, no draws and one defeat, at 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Leiston 3-2 at home; before that came a 3-0 defeat at home to Wingate & Finchley and a 4-1 win away at Stourbridge.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. On the road they've won two of two recently (6 scored, 2 conceded).

Home and away form points to Real Bedford: Chesham United have won one of their last four at home, Real Bedford two of their last two on the road. Real Bedford also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Chesham United favourites at 45%, with Real Bedford on 32% and the draw at 23%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Chesham United still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.5 in the game: 2.0 for Chesham United and 1.4 for Real Bedford. Over 2.5 goals is 67% and both teams scoring 66%.