Estoril vs Marítimo prediction

Estoril have won none, drawn two and lost eight of their ten Primeira Liga games so far, scoring 5 and letting in 19. That has them 18th on 2 points.

Their last six in all competitions read no wins, one draw and five defeats, at 0.7 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 4-0 to Porto away; before that came a 3-1 defeat at home to Moreirense and a 1-1 draw away at Salgueiros.

Estoril haven't won in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won none of two recently (2 scored, 5 conceded).

So far in the Primeira Liga, Marítimo have won two, drawn two and lost six of ten, with 9 goals scored and 21 conceded, good for 14th place and 8 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, one draw and four defeats, averaging 0.8 goals for and 2.2 against. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Santa Clara at home; before that came a 2-1 defeat away at Sp Lisbon and a 5-0 defeat away at Guimaraes.

Marítimo haven't won in three. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won one of four recently (4 scored, 9 conceded).

Home and away form points to Marítimo: Estoril have won none of their last two at home, Marítimo one of their last four on the road. Six points separate the two sides in the table.

We make Estoril favourites at 47%, with Marítimo on 26% and the draw at 27%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Estoril still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.6 for Estoril and 1.2 for Marítimo. Over 2.5 goals is 51% and both teams scoring 54%. When they last met, on 27 May 2023, Estoril won 3-1.