Vitória vs Casa Pia prediction

Vitória have won two, drawn three and lost five of their ten Primeira Liga games so far, scoring 10 and letting in 10. That has them 13th on 9 points.

Their last six in all competitions read one win, no draws and five defeats, at 0.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Sp Braga away; before that came a 1-0 win at home to Nacional and a 3-2 defeat away at Sp Lisbon.

They failed to score in four of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (1 scored, 2 conceded).

So far in the Primeira Liga, Casa Pia have won two, drawn one and lost seven of ten, with 5 goals scored and 19 conceded, good for 17th place and 7 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, one draw and four defeats, averaging 0.3 goals for and 2.0 against. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Moreirense at home; before that came a 2-0 defeat away at Gil Vicente and a 7-0 defeat at home to Benfica.

Casa Pia haven't won in five. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. They failed to score in four of those games. On the road they've won one of three recently (1 scored, 3 conceded).

There isn't much between Vitória's home form and Casa Pia's away form. Two points separate the two sides in the table. Vitória also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Vitória favourites at 45%, with Casa Pia on 27% and the draw at 29%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.3 in the game: 1.3 for Vitória and 1.0 for Casa Pia. Over 2.5 goals is 40% and both teams scoring 45%. When they last met, on 11 May 2026, Casa Pia won 1-0.