CD Nacional vs Alverca prediction

So far in the Primeira Liga, CD Nacional have won two, drawn one and lost seven of ten, with 10 goals scored and 19 conceded, good for 15th place and 7 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Sp Lisbon away; before that came a 3-2 defeat at home to Estrela and a 1-0 defeat away at Guimaraes.

CD Nacional haven't won in three. Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won two of three recently (6 scored, 3 conceded).

Alverca have won three, drawn two and lost five of their ten Primeira Liga games so far, scoring 13 and letting in 14. That has them 10th on 11 points.

Their last six in all competitions read no wins, two draws and four defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Sp Braga at home; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Santa Clara and a 3-1 defeat away at Sp Lisbon.

Alverca haven't won in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won none of three recently (1 scored, 6 conceded).

Home and away form points to CD Nacional: CD Nacional have won two of their last three at home, Alverca none of their last three on the road. Four points separate the two sides in the table. CD Nacional also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make CD Nacional favourites at 43%, with Alverca on 28% and the draw at 29%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.5 in the game: 1.4 for CD Nacional and 1.1 for Alverca. Over 2.5 goals is 46% and both teams scoring 50%. When they last met, on 18 Apr 2026, Nacional won 1-0.