Atlético Morelia vs Venados prediction

Atlético Morelia have won eight, drawn two and lost five of their 15 Liga de Expansión MX games so far, scoring 26 and letting in 19. That has them 3rd on 26 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, two draws and two defeats, at 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Venados FC 2-1 away; before that came a 3-1 defeat away at Durango and a 2-1 win away at Tapatío.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won none of two recently (2 scored, 3 conceded).

So far in the Liga de Expansión MX, Venados have won seven, drawn four and lost four of 15, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded, good for 6th place and 25 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, three draws and one defeat, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Monarcas at home; before that came a goalless draw away at Correcaminos Uat and a 3-2 win at home to Durango.

On the road they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 2 conceded).

Home and away form points to Venados: Atlético Morelia have won none of their last two at home, Venados one of their last three on the road. One point separates the two sides in the table.

We make Atlético Morelia clear favourites at 62%, with Venados on 18% and the draw at 21%. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Atlético Morelia still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.5 in the game: 2.5 for Atlético Morelia and 0.9 for Venados. Over 2.5 goals is 66% and both teams scoring 54%. When they last met, on 4 Nov 2026, Monarcas won 2-1.