Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction

So far in the La Liga, Real Madrid have won nine, drawn none and lost two of 11, with 28 goals scored and 10 conceded, good for 3rd place and 27 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 2.0 goals for and 0.7 against. Last time out they beat Inter Milan 2-1 at home; before that came a goalless draw at home to Albacete and a 1-0 defeat away at Real Betis.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won three of four recently (10 scored, 2 conceded).

Rayo Vallecano have won three, drawn three and lost four of their ten La Liga games so far, scoring 15 and letting in 20. That has them 12th on 12 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Santander 3-2 at home; before that came a 5-2 defeat away at Barcelona and a 1-1 draw at home to Alaves.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. On the road they've won one of three recently (5 scored, 8 conceded).

Home and away form points to Real Madrid: Real Madrid have won three of their last four at home, Rayo Vallecano one of their last three on the road. 15 points separate the two sides in the table. Real Madrid also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Real Madrid clear favourites at 82%, with Rayo Vallecano on 6% and the draw at 12%.

On goals, it expects around 3.4 in the game: 2.6 for Real Madrid and 0.7 for Rayo Vallecano. Over 2.5 goals is 66% and both teams scoring 49%. When they last met, on 1 Feb 2026, Real Madrid won 2-1.