Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, no draws and two defeats, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.0 against. Last time out they beat Manchester United 3-0 away; before that came a 3-0 win at home to AC Milan and a 2-0 win at home to Sunderland.

Bournemouth are unbeaten in four. They have scored in each of their last five. Four clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won three of four recently (8 scored, 1 conceded).

Their last six in all competitions read five wins, one draw and no defeats, at 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Manchester City 2-1 at home; before that came a 3-1 win at home to Viking and a 1-0 win away at Newcastle United.

Aston Villa are unbeaten in six. They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of two recently (4 scored, 1 conceded).

Home and away form points to Aston Villa: Bournemouth have won three of their last four at home, Aston Villa two of their last two on the road. Aston Villa also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Bournemouth clear favourites at 57%, with Aston Villa on 25% and the draw at 18%. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Bournemouth still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.5 in the game: 2.1 for Bournemouth and 1.3 for Aston Villa. Over 2.5 goals is 61% and both teams scoring 55%. Their last meeting, on 7 Feb 2026, finished 1-1.