Paraty vs Barra Mansa prediction

Paraty have won none, drawn none and lost 11 of their 11 Carioca B2 games so far, scoring 8 and letting in 37. That has them 12th on 0 points.

Their last six in all competitions read no wins, no draws and six defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 3.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 6-2 to Serra Macaense away; before that came a 6-1 defeat away at Cardoso Moreira and a 4-0 defeat at home to Rio de Janeiro.

Paraty haven't won in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in three of those games. At home they've won none of two recently (0 scored, 7 conceded).

So far in the Carioca B2, Barra Mansa have won two, drawn four and lost five of 11, with 10 goals scored and 16 conceded, good for 10th place and 10 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, one draw and four defeats, averaging 0.3 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they lost 3-1 to SE Belford Roxo away; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Serra Macaense and a 1-0 defeat away at Santa Cruz RJ.

Barra Mansa haven't won in five. Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank four times. On the road they've won none of three recently (1 scored, 6 conceded).

There isn't much between Paraty's home form and Barra Mansa's away form. Ten points separate the two sides in the table. Barra Mansa also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Paraty favourites at 44%, with Barra Mansa on 33% and the draw at 23%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Paraty still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.0 in the game: 1.2 for Paraty and 1.8 for Barra Mansa. Over 2.5 goals is 55% and both teams scoring 56%.