Alaves vs Málaga prediction

Alaves have won three, drawn three and lost five of their 11 La Liga games so far, scoring 15 and letting in 17. That has them 11th on 12 points.

Their last six in all competitions read one win, one draw and four defeats, at 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Celta away; before that came a 2-1 defeat at home to Atletico Madrid and a goalless draw away at Athletic Bilbao.

Alaves haven't won in five. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (6 scored, 5 conceded). F. Garces (suspended) and M. Rodriguez (ankle injury) both miss out.

So far in the La Liga, Málaga have won none, drawn five and lost six of 11, with 8 goals scored and 21 conceded, good for 20th place and 5 points.

Over the last six matches it has been no wins, three draws and three defeats, averaging 0.8 goals for and 1.8 against. Last time out they lost 5-2 to Real Sociedad at home; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Espanyol and a 1-0 defeat away at Getafe.

Málaga haven't won in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won none of two recently (1 scored, 2 conceded). A. Ochoa (knee injury), D. Murillo (knee injury) and J. Cruz (muscle injury), plus three others, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Alaves: Alaves have won one of their last three at home, Málaga none of their last two on the road. Seven points separate the two sides in the table. Alaves also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Alaves clear favourites at 59%, with Málaga on 19% and the draw at 22%.

On goals, it expects around 2.9 in the game: 2.0 for Alaves and 1.0 for Málaga. Over 2.5 goals is 54% and both teams scoring 50%. When they last met, on 20 May 2023, Alaves won 2-1.