Lokomotiv vs Olmaliq prediction

Lokomotiv have won 11, drawn seven and lost eight of their 26 Super League games so far, scoring 41 and letting in 33. That has them 7th on 40 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, two draws and one defeat, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Qizilqum; before that came a 4-2 win away at Neftchi and a goalless draw at home to Nasaf.

Lokomotiv are unbeaten in four. Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won none of two recently (0 scored, 1 conceded).

So far in the Super League, Olmaliq have won 13, drawn six and lost seven of 26, with 38 goals scored and 33 conceded, good for 4th place and 45 points.

Over the last six matches it has been five wins, one draw and no defeats, averaging 1.8 goals for and 0.8 against. Last time out they beat Kokand-1912 2-1 at home; before that came a 2-0 win at home to PFK Guliston and a 1-0 win away at Mash'al.

Olmaliq are unbeaten in six. They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of two recently (3 scored, 1 conceded).

Home and away form points to Olmaliq: Lokomotiv have won none of their last two at home, Olmaliq two of their last two on the road. Five points separate the two sides in the table. Olmaliq also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Lokomotiv favourites at 41%, with Olmaliq on 30% and the draw at 28%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Lokomotiv still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.6 for Lokomotiv and 1.1 for Olmaliq. Over 2.5 goals is 50% and both teams scoring 53%.