Sparta vs Ajax prediction, 25 October 2026

Sparta

Sunday, 25 October 2026

12Half time 1 : 2Eredivisie

Ajax

Toornstra 43′

Ouazane 22′
Arokodare 45+1′

Match result

Pre-match prediction

Locked at kickoff

16.0%Sparta

16.3%Draw

67.7%Ajax

Double chance

Sparta or draw32%

Either team wins84%

Ajax or draw84%

1.0Sparta3.7expected goals2.7Ajax

Every market

All predictions

Total goals

LineOverUnder

0.597%3%

1.588%12%

2.571%29%

3.551%49%

4.534%66%

Both teams to score

Yes61%No39%

GG2+

No80%Yes20%

Team total goals

OverSpartaAjax

0.566%92%

1.528%72%

2.59%49%

Clean sheet

Sparta8%Ajax34%

Win to nil

Sparta6%Ajax31%

Odd or even goals

Odd50%Even50%

Winning margin

Draw16%

WinsSpartaAjax

by 111%19%

by 24%18%

by 3+1%30%

Total goal bands

0-1 goals12%2-3 goals36%4-5 goals31%6+ goals20%

Match preview · Eredivisie

Sparta vs Ajax: preview and prediction

25 Oct 2026 · 15:45Sparta Stadium Het KasteelDanny Makkelie

Sparta welcome Ajax to Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel in Rotterdam on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 15:45. It's matchday 10 in the Eredivisie. Sparta go into it 11th in the table after 11 games, with Ajax 2nd, 9 places higher. Last time out Sparta beat Willem II 3-2 at home, and Ajax beat Atalanta 2-0 at home.

The forecast

16%Sparta16%Draw68%Ajax

Expected goals1.0-2.7Over 2.5 goals71%Both teams score61%

FormAjaxHome and awayAjaxThe tableAjaxGoalsAjaxHead to headAjaxTeam newsSparta

Sparta: form and key numbers

So far in the Eredivisie, Sparta have won three, drawn three and lost five of 11, with 20 goals scored and 26 conceded, good for 11th place and 12 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, two draws and three defeats, averaging 1.7 goals for and 3.2 against. Last time out they beat Willem II 3-2 at home; before that came a 3-3 draw away at Go Ahead Eagles and a 4-1 defeat at home to Almere City.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won one of four recently (6 scored, 12 conceded). S. Mito (injury) misses out.

SpartaLast 6 · 1W 2D 3L

17 OctHWillem II3-2W
10 OctAGo Ahead Eagles3-3D
10 OctHAlmere City1-4L
19 SeptHHeerenveen0-4L
13 SeptAPSV1-4L
4 SeptHPEC Zwolle2-2D

1.7scored a game3.2conceded a game0.8points a game

At home · last 4WLLD

Sparta: last 6 results in all competitions, newest first.

Ajax: form and key numbers

Ajax have won seven, drawn three and lost one of their 11 Eredivisie games so far, scoring 30 and letting in 13. That has them 2nd on 24 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, two draws and one defeat, at 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Atalanta 2-0 at home; before that came a 5-2 win away at Groningen and a 2-1 defeat away at HNK Hajduk Split.

They have scored in each of their last six. On the road they've won one of two recently (6 scored, 4 conceded). A. Gaaei (injury), Caio Henrique (thigh injury) and D. Blind (back injury), plus four others, are all unavailable.

AjaxLast 6 · 3W 2D 1L

22 OctHAtalanta2-0W
18 OctAGroningen5-2W
15 OctAHNK Hajduk Split1-2L
10 OctHNijmegen1-1D
19 SeptHExcelsior2-2D
15 SeptHWillem II5-1W

2.7scored a game1.3conceded a game1.8points a game

Away · last 2WL

Ajax: last 6 results in all competitions, newest first.

Sparta vs Ajax: match analysis

Home and away form points to Ajax: Sparta have won one of their last four at home, Ajax one of their last two on the road. 12 points separate the two sides in the table. Ajax also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

The table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	+21	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	+17	24
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	2	2	+22	23
···
10	Go Ahead	11	3	5	3	-4	14
11	Sparta	11	3	3	5	-6	12
12	Utrecht	11	3	3	5	-12	12

We make Ajax clear favourites at 68%, with Sparta on 16% and the draw at 16%.

Goals, recent and expected

1.7Scored a game2.7
3.2Conceded a game1.3
1.0Expected here (xG)2.7

Over 1.588%Over 2.571%Over 3.551%Both score61%

On goals, it expects around 3.7 in the game: 1.0 for Sparta and 2.7 for Ajax. Over 2.5 goals is 71% and both teams scoring 61%. When they last met, on 14 Mar 2026, Ajax won 4-0.

Last meetings