Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë prediction

So far in the 1st Division, Pogradeci have won three, drawn five and lost one of nine, with 13 goals scored and 8 conceded, good for 6th place and 14 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, three draws and one defeat, averaging 2.5 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Besa Kavajë away; before that came a goalless draw at home to Oriku and a 2-2 draw away at Bylis.

Pogradeci haven't won in four. Three clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won one of three recently (9 scored, 2 conceded).

Besëlidhja Lezhë have won four, drawn two and lost three of their nine 1st Division games so far, scoring 13 and letting in 9. That has them 7th on 14 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, one draw and one defeat, at 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Oriku 1-0 away; before that came a 5-2 win at home to Sopoti Librazhd and a 1-0 defeat away at Flamurtari.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won one of three recently (1 scored, 1 conceded).

There isn't much between Pogradeci's home form and Besëlidhja Lezhë's away form. The two sides are level on points.

We make Pogradeci clear favourites at 59%, with Besëlidhja Lezhë on 16% and the draw at 25%. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Pogradeci still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.9 in the game: 2.1 for Pogradeci and 0.8 for Besëlidhja Lezhë. Over 2.5 goals is 53% and both teams scoring 50%.