Excelsior '31 vs ACV prediction

So far in the Derde Divisie, Excelsior '31 have won seven, drawn one and lost three of 11, with 28 goals scored and 13 conceded, good for 5th place and 22 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they drew 1-1 with ADO Den Haag; before that came a 4-0 defeat away at Harkemase Boys and a 5-0 win at home to SC Genemuiden.

Three clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won two of three recently (9 scored, 1 conceded).

ACV have won seven, drawn three and lost one of their 11 Derde Divisie games so far, scoring 27 and letting in 11. That has them 2nd on 24 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, two draws and two defeats, at 2.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-1 to AFC Amsterdam at home; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Dovo and a 4-1 win away at Hoogeveen.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. On the road they've won one of two recently (6 scored, 5 conceded).

Home and away form points to Excelsior '31: Excelsior '31 have won two of their last three at home, ACV one of their last two on the road. Two points separate the two sides in the table.

We make ACV favourites at 47%, with Excelsior '31 on 34% and the draw at 20%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, ACV still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.5 in the game: 1.5 for Excelsior '31 and 2.0 for ACV. Over 2.5 goals is 65% and both teams scoring 63%. Their last meeting, on 8 Apr 2023, finished 1-1.