Derby vs Wrexham prediction

So far in the Championship, Derby have won one, drawn four and lost eight of 13, with 11 goals scored and 25 conceded, good for 23rd place and 7 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, one draw and four defeats, averaging 0.7 goals for and 1.7 against. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Burnley; before that came a 2-1 defeat at home to Birmingham and a 1-0 defeat at home to West Bromwich Albion.

Derby haven't won in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. They failed to score in three of those games. At home they've won none of three recently (1 scored, 6 conceded).

Wrexham have won three, drawn five and lost five of their 13 Championship games so far, scoring 15 and letting in 19. That has them 18th on 14 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, two draws and two defeats, at 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Southampton 2-1 at home; before that came a 6-0 defeat away at West Ham United and a 1-1 draw at home to Burnley.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 6 conceded).

Home and away form points to Wrexham: Derby have won none of their last three at home, Wrexham one of their last three on the road. Seven points separate the two sides in the table. Wrexham also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Wrexham favourites at 38%, with Derby on 36% and the draw at 27%. In truth there's very little in it.

On goals, it expects around 2.6 in the game: 1.3 for Derby and 1.3 for Wrexham. Over 2.5 goals is 48% and both teams scoring 53%. When they last met, on 4 Jan 2026, Wrexham won 2-1.