Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC prediction

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Dinamo Zagreb have won one, drawn one and lost one of three, with 3 goals scored and 4 conceded, good for 18th place and 4 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 2.3 goals for and 0.8 against. Last time out they beat NK Slaven Belupo 5-1 away; before that came a 1-0 win at home to Anderlecht and a 2-1 defeat away at HNK Hajduk Split.

They have scored in each of their last five. Three clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won two of two recently (4 scored, 2 conceded). A. Stojakovic (foot injury), F. Topić (off the roster) and I. Nevistic (off the roster), plus three others, are all unavailable.

NEC have won one, drawn one and lost one of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 5 and letting in 8. That has them 20th on 4 points.

Their last six in all competitions read no wins, four draws and two defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 2-2 with For Sittard; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Levski Sofia and a 1-1 draw away at Ajax.

NEC are unbeaten in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won none of three recently (1 scored, 9 conceded). A. Tahaui (off the roster), A. Thomas (suspended) and B. Nuytinck (ankle injury), plus six others, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Dinamo Zagreb: Dinamo Zagreb have won two of their last two at home, NEC none of their last three on the road. The two sides are level on points. Dinamo Zagreb also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Dinamo Zagreb clear favourites at 64%, with NEC on 17% and the draw at 19%.

On goals, it expects around 3.1 in the game: 2.2 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.0 for NEC. Over 2.5 goals is 59% and both teams scoring 53%.