Bahia vs São Paulo prediction

Bahia have won 14, drawn 11 and lost eight of their 33 Serie A games so far, scoring 48 and letting in 42. That has them 6th on 53 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Santos; before that came a 3-0 defeat at home to Flamengo RJ and a 1-0 win at home to Mirassol.

They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won two of three recently (3 scored, 4 conceded).

So far in the Serie A, São Paulo have won 12, drawn seven and lost 14 of 33, with 39 goals scored and 39 conceded, good for 10th place and 43 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.0 goals for and 1.0 against. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Mirassol; before that came a 1-0 win at home to Vasco and a 2-1 win at home to Vitoria.

São Paulo are unbeaten in three. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won none of two recently (1 scored, 3 conceded).

Home and away form points to Bahia: Bahia have won two of their last three at home, São Paulo none of their last two on the road. Ten points separate the two sides in the table. São Paulo also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Bahia favourites at 50%, with São Paulo on 24% and the draw at 26%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.8 for Bahia and 1.0 for São Paulo. Over 2.5 goals is 52% and both teams scoring 50%. Their last meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished 2-2.