OFI vs Leverkusen prediction

OFI have won one, drawn none and lost two of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 3 and letting in 4. That has them 26th on 3 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 4-3 to Kalamata away; before that came a 2-1 defeat away at Rennes and a 3-0 defeat away at AEK.

OFI haven't won in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won one of two recently (4 scored, 2 conceded). A. Chatzigiovanis (off the roster), A. Leya Iseka (groin injury) and C. Sielis (muscle injury), plus two others, are all unavailable.

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Leverkusen have won three, drawn none and lost none of three, with 8 goals scored and 0 conceded, good for 2nd place and 9 points.

Over the last six matches it has been five wins, one draw and no defeats, averaging 2.7 goals for and 1.0 against. Last time out they beat Freiburg 2-1 at home; before that came a 4-0 win away at Lech Poznan and a 4-3 win away at 1. FSV Mainz 05.

Leverkusen are unbeaten in six. They have scored in each of their last six. Three clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of three recently (10 scored, 5 conceded). C. Kofane (muscle injury), E. Ben Seghir (muscle injury) and G. Doue (calf injury), plus six others, are all unavailable.

There isn't much between OFI's home form and Leverkusen's away form. Six points separate the two sides in the table. Leverkusen also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Leverkusen clear favourites at 74%, with OFI on 11% and the draw at 16%.

On goals, it expects around 3.2 in the game: 0.8 for OFI and 2.4 for Leverkusen. Over 2.5 goals is 62% and both teams scoring 52%.