Lucchese vs Sestri Levante prediction

Their last six in all competitions read one win, three draws and two defeats, at 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Terranuova Traiana away; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano and a 2-0 defeat away at Sasso Marconi Zola.

Lucchese haven't won in five. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won none of two recently (3 scored, 3 conceded).

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, three draws and one defeat, averaging 0.5 goals for and 0.3 against. Last time out they were held to a goalless draw by Ligorna; before that came a goalless draw at home to Saluzzo and a 1-0 defeat away at Sanremese.

Sestri Levante haven't won in four. Four clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank three times. On the road they've won one of three recently (1 scored, 1 conceded).

There isn't much between Lucchese's home form and Sestri Levante's away form.

We make Lucchese favourites at 44%, with Sestri Levante on 23% and the draw at 33%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Lucchese still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.5 in the game: 1.4 for Lucchese and 1.1 for Sestri Levante. Over 2.5 goals is 44% and both teams scoring 49%.