Bournemouth vs Milan prediction

Bournemouth have won three, drawn none and lost none of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 8 and letting in 1. That has them 3rd on 9 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Sunderland 2-0 at home; before that came a 3-0 win at home to Sturm Graz and a 5-1 defeat away at Chelsea.

Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won two of four recently (7 scored, 3 conceded). A. Scott (thigh injury), D. Jebbison (off the roster) and E. J. Kroupi (foot injury), plus five others, are all unavailable.

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Milan have won one, drawn none and lost two of three, with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded, good for 24th place and 3 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they beat Atalanta 3-2 at home; before that came a 4-0 win away at Salzburg and a 1-1 draw away at Sassuolo.

Milan are unbeaten in four. They have scored in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won one of three recently (7 scored, 3 conceded). A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury), F. Terracciano (red card) and G. Ramos (calf injury), plus three others, are all unavailable.

There isn't much between Bournemouth's home form and Milan's away form. Six points separate the two sides in the table. Milan also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Bournemouth clear favourites at 56%, with Milan on 23% and the draw at 21%.

On goals, it expects around 3.2 in the game: 2.2 for Bournemouth and 1.0 for Milan. Over 2.5 goals is 62% and both teams scoring 57%.