Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction

So far in the La Liga, Alaves have won three, drawn three and lost five of 11, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded, good for 11th place and 12 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, two draws and two defeats, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.0 against. Last time out they were held to a goalless draw by Athletic Bilbao; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Valencia and a 2-1 defeat away at Santander.

Alaves haven't won in three. Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won two of three recently (6 scored, 3 conceded).

Atletico Madrid have won nine, drawn one and lost one of their 11 La Liga games so far, scoring 22 and letting in 8. That has them 2nd on 28 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, no draws and two defeats, at 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Real Madrid 2-0 at home; before that came a 2-1 win at home to Real Madrid and a 4-0 win at home to Osasuna.

Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in four. They have scored in each of their last five. Three clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won one of three recently (4 scored, 5 conceded).

Home and away form points to Alaves: Alaves have won two of their last three at home, Atletico Madrid one of their last three on the road. 16 points separate the two sides in the table. Atletico Madrid also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Atletico Madrid favourites at 46%, with Alaves on 28% and the draw at 25%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.1 for Alaves and 1.6 for Atletico Madrid. Over 2.5 goals is 51% and both teams scoring 54%. When they last met, on 18 Jan 2026, Atletico Madrid won 1-0.