Berceo vs Alfaro prediction

So far in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 6, Berceo have won six, drawn none and lost three of nine, with 21 goals scored and 11 conceded, good for 5th place and 18 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, no draws and two defeats, averaging 1.8 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they beat Calasancio 1-0 away; before that came a 3-1 defeat at home to Agoncillo and a 2-0 defeat away at Oyonesa.

At home they've won two of three recently (8 scored, 5 conceded).

Alfaro have won six, drawn one and lost two of their nine Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 games so far, scoring 12 and letting in 8. That has them 3rd on 19 points.

Their last six in all competitions read five wins, no draws and one defeat, at 1.2 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Comillas 1-0 at home; before that came a 1-0 defeat away at Varea and a 1-0 win at home to Vianés.

Three clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of three recently (3 scored, 2 conceded).

There isn't much between Berceo's home form and Alfaro's away form. One point separates the two sides in the table.

We make Berceo favourites at 47%, with Alfaro on 24% and the draw at 29%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Berceo still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.4 in the game: 1.4 for Berceo and 1.0 for Alfaro. Over 2.5 goals is 44% and both teams scoring 49%.