Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Bournemouth have won three, drawn none and lost none of three, with 8 goals scored and 1 conceded, good for 3rd place and 9 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, two draws and two defeats, averaging 1.8 goals for and 1.8 against. Last time out they lost 5-1 to Chelsea away; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Liverpool and a 2-1 win away at Real Sociedad.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. At home they've won one of three recently (6 scored, 3 conceded). A. Adli (calf injury), A. Scott (thigh injury) and D. Jebbison (off the roster), plus seven others, are all unavailable.

Sturm Graz have won one, drawn one and lost one of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 1 and letting in 3. That has them 19th on 4 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, one draw and one defeat, at 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Austria Vienna 2-0 away; before that came a 3-1 win at home to Floridsdorfer AC and a 3-0 defeat away at Salzburg.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won two of three recently (6 scored, 4 conceded). A. Kayombo (inactive), A. Vallci (injury) and E. Soglo (muscle injury), plus eight others, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Sturm Graz: Bournemouth have won one of their last three at home, Sturm Graz two of their last three on the road. Five points separate the two sides in the table. Sturm Graz also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Bournemouth clear favourites at 78%, with Sturm Graz on 6% and the draw at 16%.

On goals, it expects around 3.0 in the game: 2.1 for Bournemouth and 0.9 for Sturm Graz. Over 2.5 goals is 58% and both teams scoring 53%.