Burnley vs Derby County prediction

So far in the Championship, Burnley have won one, drawn six and lost six of 13, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded, good for 22nd place and 9 points.

Over the last six matches it has been no wins, three draws and three defeats, averaging 0.8 goals for and 1.8 against. Last time out they lost 3-1 to Swansea away; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Wrexham and a 2-1 defeat at home to Bristol City.

Burnley haven't won in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. At home they've won none of two recently (2 scored, 3 conceded).

Derby County have won one, drawn four and lost eight of their 13 Championship games so far, scoring 11 and letting in 25. That has them 23rd on 7 points.

Their last six in all competitions read one win, one draw and four defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Birmingham at home; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to West Bromwich Albion and a 3-0 defeat away at West Ham United.

Derby County haven't won in three. They failed to score in three of those games. On the road they've won one of two recently (2 scored, 3 conceded).

Home and away form points to Derby County: Burnley have won none of their last two at home, Derby County one of their last two on the road. Two points separate the two sides in the table.

We make Burnley favourites at 48%, with Derby County on 27% and the draw at 25%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.5 for Burnley and 1.2 for Derby County. Over 2.5 goals is 51% and both teams scoring 55%. Their last meeting, on 8 Apr 2025, finished 0-0.