AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction

So far in the Eredivisie, AZ Alkmaar have won six, drawn two and lost three of 11, with 20 goals scored and 13 conceded, good for 5th place and 20 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Ajax away; before that came a 2-0 defeat at home to Twente and a 4-0 win away at Ararat-Armenia.

They failed to score in three of those games. At home they've won one of two recently (2 scored, 3 conceded).

Groningen have won four, drawn three and lost four of their 11 Eredivisie games so far, scoring 26 and letting in 24. That has them 8th on 15 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 2.3 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Sparta Rotterdam at home; before that came a 2-0 defeat at home to FC Emmen and a 2-2 draw away at Nijmegen.

Groningen haven't won in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. On the road they've won one of two recently (7 scored, 3 conceded).

Home and away form points to Groningen: AZ Alkmaar have won one of their last two at home, Groningen one of their last two on the road. Five points separate the two sides in the table.

We make AZ Alkmaar clear favourites at 64%, with Groningen on 16% and the draw at 19%.

On goals, it expects around 3.9 in the game: 2.8 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.0 for Groningen. Over 2.5 goals is 70% and both teams scoring 59%. When they last met, on 22 Mar 2026, Groningen won 3-0.