Mafra vs Santa Clara prediction

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, two draws and two defeats, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they drew 2-2 with CF Os Belenenses; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Tirsense and a 2-1 defeat away at Oliveirense.

Mafra haven't won in three. They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won one of three recently (5 scored, 4 conceded).

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, two draws and no defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Casa Pia 1-0 away; before that came a goalless draw at home to Sp Braga and a 2-1 win away at Arouca.

Santa Clara are unbeaten in six. Four clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of three recently (4 scored, 2 conceded).

Home and away form points to Santa Clara: Mafra have won one of their last three at home, Santa Clara two of their last three on the road. Santa Clara also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Mafra favourites at 45%, with Santa Clara on 34% and the draw at 20%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Mafra still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.2 in the game: 1.6 for Mafra and 1.6 for Santa Clara. Over 2.5 goals is 56% and both teams scoring 53%.