Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction

Their last six in all competitions read one win, no draws and five defeats, at 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Botafogo RJ away; before that came a 2-0 defeat away at Gremio and a 1-0 defeat at home to Cruzeiro.

Atletico-MG haven't won in five. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. They failed to score in four of those games. At home they've won one of two recently (1 scored, 1 conceded).

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they lost 3-1 to Flamengo RJ away; before that came a 2-0 win at home to Atletico-MG and a 2-0 win at home to Athletico-PR.

They have scored in each of their last six. Three clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won one of two recently (2 scored, 3 conceded).

There isn't much between Atletico-MG's home form and Gremio's away form. Gremio also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Atletico-MG clear favourites at 59%, with Gremio on 21% and the draw at 20%. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Atletico-MG still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.1 in the game: 2.1 for Atletico-MG and 1.0 for Gremio. Over 2.5 goals is 59% and both teams scoring 53%. When they last met, on 1 Nov 2026, Gremio won 2-0.