Smiltene vs Mārupe prediction

So far in the 1. Liga, Smiltene have won six, drawn six and lost 13 of 25, with 38 goals scored and 63 conceded, good for 10th place and 24 points.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 2.2 goals for and 2.0 against. Last time out they beat Skanste 3-1 away; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Riga FC II and a 3-2 win at home to Tukums II.

Smiltene are unbeaten in four. They have scored in each of their last six. At home they've won one of three recently (6 scored, 8 conceded).

Mārupe have won ten, drawn four and lost 11 of their 25 1. Liga games so far, scoring 39 and letting in 41. That has them 6th on 34 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, two draws and two defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 6-1 to Riga Mariners at home; before that came a goalless draw away at JFK Ventspils and a 3-2 win away at Rīgas FS II.

Three clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank three times. On the road they've won one of two recently (3 scored, 2 conceded).

Home and away form points to Mārupe: Smiltene have won one of their last three at home, Mārupe one of their last two on the road. Ten points separate the two sides in the table.

We make Smiltene favourites at 43%, with Mārupe on 37% and the draw at 19%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Smiltene still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.7 in the game: 2.1 for Smiltene and 1.6 for Mārupe. Over 2.5 goals is 67% and both teams scoring 63%. When they last met, on 4 Jul 2026, Mārupe won 2-1.