Lincoln vs Burnley prediction

Lincoln have won four, drawn three and lost six of their 13 Championship games so far, scoring 14 and letting in 23. That has them 16th on 15 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 2-2 with Millwall; before that came a 6-0 defeat at home to West Ham United and a 3-0 defeat away at Sheffield United.

Lincoln haven't won in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won none of two recently (1 scored, 8 conceded). E. Wheatley (inactive), F. Draper (yellow cards) and M. Melia (thigh injury), plus two others, are all unavailable.

So far in the Championship, Burnley have won one, drawn six and lost six of 13, with 17 goals scored and 25 conceded, good for 22nd place and 9 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, three draws and two defeats, averaging 1.7 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Wolverhampton Wanderers at home; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Charlton and a 4-0 win away at Watford.

They have scored in each of their last six. On the road they've won one of three recently (6 scored, 4 conceded). A. Ahmedhodzic (knock), A. Barnes (muscle injury) and A. Ramsey (hamstring injury), plus 12 others, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Burnley: Lincoln have won none of their last two at home, Burnley one of their last three on the road. Six points separate the two sides in the table. Burnley also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Burnley favourites at 46%, with Lincoln on 28% and the draw at 26%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.1 for Lincoln and 1.6 for Burnley. Over 2.5 goals is 52% and both teams scoring 52%.