Atlante vs Santos Laguna prediction

So far in the Liga MX, Atlante have won three, drawn five and lost seven of 15, with 16 goals scored and 24 conceded, good for 16th place and 14 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, no draws and four defeats, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.8 against. Last time out they lost 4-2 to Guadalajara Chivas away; before that came a 1-0 defeat at home to Atl. San Luis and a 1-0 win away at Juarez.

They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (5 scored, 5 conceded).

Santos Laguna have won seven, drawn one and lost seven of their 15 Liga MX games so far, scoring 21 and letting in 20. That has them 8th on 22 points.

Their last six in all competitions read five wins, no draws and one defeat, at 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Necaxa 1-0 at home; before that came a 4-1 defeat away at Club Tijuana and a 2-0 win at home to UNAM Pumas.

They have scored in each of their last six. Four clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won one of two recently (3 scored, 5 conceded).

Home and away form points to Santos Laguna: Atlante have won one of their last three at home, Santos Laguna one of their last two on the road. Eight points separate the two sides in the table. Santos Laguna also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Atlante favourites at 42%, with Santos Laguna on 33% and the draw at 25%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Atlante still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.0 in the game: 1.4 for Atlante and 1.6 for Santos Laguna. Over 2.5 goals is 59% and both teams scoring 59%. When they last met, on 14 Apr 2014, Santos Laguna won 4-3.