Bolton vs Stoke prediction

Bolton have won four, drawn two and lost seven of their 13 Championship games so far, scoring 18 and letting in 26. That has them 19th on 14 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, no draws and four defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Norwich 4-3 away; before that came a 1-0 win at home to Cardiff and a 3-2 defeat at home to West Ham United.

They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (3 scored, 4 conceded).

So far in the Championship, Stoke have won seven, drawn two and lost four of 13, with 20 goals scored and 16 conceded, good for 7th place and 23 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.8 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they beat Sheffield United 2-1 at home; before that came a 2-1 win away at Watford and a 1-1 draw away at Cardiff.

Stoke are unbeaten in five. They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won one of three recently (4 scored, 6 conceded).

There isn't much between Bolton's home form and Stoke's away form. Nine points separate the two sides in the table. Stoke also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Bolton favourites at 43%, with Stoke on 30% and the draw at 27%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Bolton still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.6 for Bolton and 1.2 for Stoke. Over 2.5 goals is 54% and both teams scoring 56%. Their last meeting, on 29 Dec 2018, finished 0-0.