Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama prediction

So far in the Serie A, Paranaense have won 15, drawn nine and lost nine of 33, with 50 goals scored and 40 conceded, good for 5th place and 54 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, two draws and two defeats, averaging 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Gremio away; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Vitoria and a 2-0 defeat at home to Palmeiras.

Paranaense haven't won in three. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won one of three recently (4 scored, 5 conceded).

Vasco da Gama have won ten, drawn eight and lost 14 of their 32 Serie A games so far, scoring 40 and letting in 49. That has them 13th on 38 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, no draws and four defeats, at 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Palmeiras away; before that came a 4-1 defeat at home to Flamengo RJ and a 3-2 win at home to Corinthians.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. They failed to score in two of those games. On the road they've won one of three recently (1 scored, 2 conceded).

There isn't much between Paranaense's home form and Vasco da Gama's away form. 16 points separate the two sides in the table. Paranaense also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Paranaense favourites at 45%, with Vasco da Gama on 28% and the draw at 28%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.7 for Paranaense and 1.0 for Vasco da Gama. Over 2.5 goals is 50% and both teams scoring 51%. When they last met, on 11 May 2026, Vasco won 1-0.