Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama prediction

Grêmio have won nine, drawn ten and lost 14 of their 33 Serie A games so far, scoring 37 and letting in 44. That has them 15th on 37 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Vitoria away; before that came a 3-1 win at home to Chapecoense-SC and a 1-0 defeat away at Bragantino.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in three of those games. At home they've won two of three recently (6 scored, 3 conceded).

So far in the Serie A, Vasco da Gama have won ten, drawn eight and lost 14 of 32, with 40 goals scored and 49 conceded, good for 13th place and 38 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, two draws and three defeats, averaging 0.7 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they were held to a goalless draw by Santa Fe; before that came a 1-0 defeat away at Fluminense and a 3-1 win at home to Cruzeiro.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank four times. On the road they've won none of four recently (1 scored, 5 conceded).

Home and away form points to Grêmio: Grêmio have won two of their last three at home, Vasco da Gama none of their last four on the road. One point separates the two sides in the table. Grêmio also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Grêmio favourites at 40%, with Vasco da Gama on 30% and the draw at 30%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.6 in the game: 1.6 for Grêmio and 1.0 for Vasco da Gama. Over 2.5 goals is 49% and both teams scoring 51%. When they last met, on 22 Mar 2026, Vasco won 2-1.