Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury prediction

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, one draw and three defeats, at 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Barrow; before that came a 2-0 defeat away at Forest Green and a 4-2 win at home to Boston.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won two of three recently (8 scored, 7 conceded).

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.7 goals for and 1.5 against. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Gillingham at home; before that came a 2-1 win at home to Everton U21 and a 3-3 draw away at Rotherham.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. On the road they've won one of two recently (6 scored, 5 conceded).

There isn't much between Eastleigh's home form and Shrewsbury's away form. Shrewsbury also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Eastleigh favourites at 43%, with Shrewsbury on 36% and the draw at 21%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Eastleigh still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.4 in the game: 1.8 for Eastleigh and 1.6 for Shrewsbury. Over 2.5 goals is 64% and both teams scoring 63%.