FC Aarau vs FC Zurich prediction

Their last six in all competitions read one win, two draws and three defeats, at 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-1 to Stade Nyonnais away; before that came a 2-1 defeat at home to Young Boys and a 2-1 defeat away at Winterthur.

FC Aarau haven't won in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won one of three recently (6 scored, 6 conceded).

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 2.3 goals for and 2.0 against. Last time out they beat Thun 4-2 at home; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Sion and a 2-1 win at home to Vaduz.

FC Zurich are unbeaten in four. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. On the road they've won one of three recently (6 scored, 5 conceded).

There isn't much between FC Aarau's home form and FC Zurich's away form. FC Zurich also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make FC Aarau favourites at 49%, with FC Zurich on 30% and the draw at 20%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, FC Aarau still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 3.2 in the game: 1.7 for FC Aarau and 1.5 for FC Zurich. Over 2.5 goals is 60% and both teams scoring 59%. Their last meeting, on 25 Apr 2015, finished 0-0.