Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Lech Poznan have won none, drawn one and lost two of three, with 1 goals scored and 9 conceded, good for 32nd place and 1 point.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 2.8 goals for and 2.2 against. Last time out they beat Korona Kielce 6-1 at home; before that came a 4-0 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen and a 4-1 win away at Slask Wroclaw.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won two of four recently (13 scored, 8 conceded). A. Douglas (ankle injury), A. Gholizadeh (knee injury) and A. Sayyadmanesh (groin injury), plus four others, are all unavailable.

Sunderland have won two, drawn one and lost none of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 4 and letting in 2. That has them 9th on 7 points.

Their last six in all competitions read two wins, no draws and four defeats, at 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 2-0 to Bournemouth away; before that came a 2-1 win away at Torreense and a 2-0 defeat at home to Brighton & Hove Albion.

The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last four. They failed to score in three of those games. On the road they've won one of three recently (5 scored, 8 conceded). A. Browne (off the roster), B. Brobbey (inactive) and C. Talbi (off the roster), plus seven others, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Lech Poznan: Lech Poznan have won two of their last four at home, Sunderland one of their last three on the road. Six points separate the two sides in the table. Lech Poznan also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Sunderland clear favourites at 54%, with Lech Poznan on 25% and the draw at 21%.

On goals, it expects around 2.8 in the game: 1.4 for Lech Poznan and 1.4 for Sunderland. Over 2.5 goals is 52% and both teams scoring 54%.