Derby vs Bolton prediction

Derby have won one, drawn four and lost eight of their 13 Championship games so far, scoring 11 and letting in 25. That has them 23rd on 7 points.

Their last six in all competitions read no wins, three draws and three defeats, at 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Last time out they lost 4-1 to Millwall away; before that came a 1-1 draw away at Sheffield United and a 1-0 defeat at home to Stoke.

Derby haven't won in six. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last six. At home they've won none of two recently (1 scored, 2 conceded).

So far in the Championship, Bolton have won four, drawn two and lost seven of 13, with 18 goals scored and 26 conceded, good for 19th place and 14 points.

Over the last six matches it has been two wins, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.8 goals for and 2.3 against. Last time out they lost 3-2 to Bristol City at home; before that came a 5-1 defeat at home to Middlesbrough and a goalless draw away at Southampton.

Bolton haven't won in three. On the road they've won two of three recently (7 scored, 4 conceded).

Home and away form points to Bolton: Derby have won none of their last two at home, Bolton two of their last three on the road. Seven points separate the two sides in the table. Bolton also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Derby favourites at 43%, with Bolton on 31% and the draw at 26%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it.

On goals, it expects around 2.9 in the game: 1.6 for Derby and 1.3 for Bolton. Over 2.5 goals is 54% and both teams scoring 56%. When they last met, on 16 Mar 2024, Derby won 1-0.