Lech Poznan vs Leverkusen prediction

So far in the UEFA Europa League, Lech Poznan have won none, drawn one and lost two of three, with 1 goals scored and 9 conceded, good for 32nd place and 1 point.

Over the last six matches it has been three wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.7 against. Last time out they beat Slask Wroclaw 4-1 away; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Cottbus and a 5-1 win at home to Radomiak Radom.

Lech Poznan are unbeaten in three. The defence is a worry: they have conceded in each of their last five. At home they've won two of three recently (8 scored, 3 conceded). A. Douglas (ankle injury), A. Gholizadeh (knee injury) and A. Sayyadmanesh (groin injury), plus three others, are all unavailable.

Leverkusen have won three, drawn none and lost none of their three UEFA Europa League games so far, scoring 8 and letting in 0. That has them 2nd on 9 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, one draw and one defeat, at 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Last time out they beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 4-3 away; before that came a 2-0 win at home to RB Leipzig and a 2-0 win at home to Celje.

Leverkusen are unbeaten in five. They have scored in each of their last six. Three clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won one of three recently (8 scored, 8 conceded). C. Kofane (muscle injury), E. Ben Seghir (muscle injury) and G. Doue (calf injury), plus five others, are all unavailable.

Home and away form points to Lech Poznan: Lech Poznan have won two of their last three at home, Leverkusen one of their last three on the road. Eight points separate the two sides in the table. Leverkusen also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Leverkusen clear favourites at 62%, with Lech Poznan on 18% and the draw at 20%.

On goals, it expects around 3.2 in the game: 1.1 for Lech Poznan and 2.1 for Leverkusen. Over 2.5 goals is 61% and both teams scoring 58%.