São Paulo vs Santos prediction

São Paulo have won 12, drawn seven and lost 14 of their 33 Serie A games so far, scoring 39 and letting in 39. That has them 10th on 43 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Internacional 1-0 at home; before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Boca Juniors and a 2-0 defeat away at Palmeiras.

Two clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. At home they've won three of four recently (6 scored, 2 conceded).

So far in the Serie A, Santos have won 12, drawn 11 and lost ten of 33, with 49 goals scored and 47 conceded, good for 8th place and 47 points.

Over the last six matches it has been five wins, no draws and one defeat, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.3 against. Last time out they beat Remo 2-1 away; before that came a 4-2 defeat away at Atletico-MG and a 2-1 win at home to Cruzeiro.

They have scored in each of their last six. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won three of four recently (8 scored, 7 conceded).

There isn't much between São Paulo's home form and Santos's away form. Four points separate the two sides in the table. Santos also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make São Paulo favourites at 46%, with Santos on 26% and the draw at 28%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, São Paulo still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.5 in the game: 1.4 for São Paulo and 1.1 for Santos. Over 2.5 goals is 47% and both teams scoring 51%. Their last meeting, on 4 Feb 2026, finished 1-1.