Toluca vs Atlas prediction

So far in the Liga MX, Toluca have won six, drawn five and lost three of 14, with 29 goals scored and 19 conceded, good for 5th place and 23 points.

Over the last six matches it has been four wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 2.0 goals for and 0.7 against. Last time out they beat Juarez 4-0 at home; before that came a 2-1 win away at Queretaro and a goalless draw away at Atlante.

Toluca are unbeaten in four. Three clean sheets in that spell. At home they've won two of three recently (8 scored, 3 conceded).

Atlas have won seven, drawn three and lost four of their 14 Liga MX games so far, scoring 25 and letting in 26. That has them 4th on 24 points.

Their last six in all competitions read three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Atlante; before that came a 3-1 defeat at home to Queretaro and a 2-0 win away at Cruz Azul.

They have scored in each of their last four. Two clean sheets in that spell. On the road they've won two of two recently (3 scored, 0 conceded).

Home and away form points to Atlas: Toluca have won two of their last three at home, Atlas two of their last two on the road. One point separates the two sides in the table. Toluca also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Toluca clear favourites at 68%, with Atlas on 12% and the draw at 21%.

On goals, it expects around 3.1 in the game: 2.2 for Toluca and 0.9 for Atlas. Over 2.5 goals is 59% and both teams scoring 52%. Their last meeting, on 15 Mar 2026, finished 1-1.