Kozuv Gevgelija vs Pelister prediction

So far in the Second League, Kozuv Gevgelija have won two, drawn four and lost three of nine, with 10 goals scored and 15 conceded, good for 9th place and 10 points.

Over the last six matches it has been one win, four draws and one defeat, averaging 1.3 goals for and 1.2 against. Last time out they beat Gorno Lisiče 3-1 away; before that came a 2-2 draw at home to Teteks and a goalless draw away at Kamjani.

Kozuv Gevgelija are unbeaten in four. They failed to score in two of those games. At home they've won none of three recently (4 scored, 5 conceded).

Pelister have won six, drawn three and lost none of their nine Second League games so far, scoring 14 and letting in 1. That has them 2nd on 21 points.

Their last six in all competitions read four wins, one draw and one defeat, at 2.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. Last time out they beat Detonit Plachkovica 6-1 at home; before that came a 3-0 defeat at home to Sileks and a 2-0 win away at Novaci.

Four clean sheets in that spell, but they also drew a blank twice. On the road they've won one of two recently (2 scored, 0 conceded).

Home and away form points to Pelister: Kozuv Gevgelija have won none of their last three at home, Pelister one of their last two on the road. 11 points separate the two sides in the table. Pelister also have the better goal difference over recent weeks.

We make Kozuv Gevgelija favourites at 40%, with Pelister on 32% and the draw at 28%. They're favoured rather than expected to stroll it. The recent numbers lean the other way, but once you account for who each side has played, Kozuv Gevgelija still come out ahead.

On goals, it expects around 2.7 in the game: 1.4 for Kozuv Gevgelija and 1.3 for Pelister. Over 2.5 goals is 50% and both teams scoring 53%.